While many
populations worldwide live with very immediate and painful results of their
strategic plights, strategic studies for Canadians by and large assume
interstate conflict away from the shores of a unified Canada.
On the fourth of September, we had a limited glimpse of what others suffer. Quebec
went to the polls in provincial elections. Elections are always anxious
moments, as centuries-old rivalries boil to the surface in a cauldron of
populist manipulation at the hands of the provincial political elite. Quebec is
a province of just over 8 million citizens in a country of 34 million. It is
isolated linguistically as the only French speaking province in an otherwise
mostly Anglophone state, and on the occasion of its elections and some
political scandals, it considers the possibility of separation from the
Canadian Federation.
It is important to note that of the 8 million Quebecers,
over a million feel more affinity with the English language than they do
French, never mind the other million who’s mother tongue is neither English or
French or are from Amerindian communities (roughly 10% of the population is
from a visible minority).
As the
question of sovereignty is strongly imbued with French Quebec’s cultural and
linguistic anxiety (though not all French would prefer sovereignty), it is a
question which fractions the groups within the province along linguistic lines.
In a province that already polices the use of English in education and the
public sphere, anglophones and allophones fear for their rights and identity
when Quebec sovereignty is mentioned.
As the
Parti Quebecois won a minority government this last Tuesday, nerves were frayed in all camps. An unaffiliated man discharged a firearm at the Parti Quebecois campaign
celebration, killing one and injuring another. As he was dragged away by
police, he screamed “les anglais se reveillent” ("the English are waking up" - ironically in French). Madmen
such as this one exacerbate political tensions and erode the otherwise
surprisingly civil discourse of the province.
To be
absolutely clear; the province is nowhere near a referendum on sovereignty, even
less a nation-state itself. Yet a
government formed by the flagship party of the separatist movement makes us
ponder for the sake of the exercise (without delving into the political debate):
Could the worst-case scenario of a civil war happen in the event of a
successful bid for sovereignty? While it is difficult to gaze into the crystal
ball of happenstance, and a referendum would not cause Quebec to separate
overnight (thus avoiding many pitfalls associated with a sudden and unmanaged
transition), we may derive potential flashpoints from looking at key actors in
the province and their interests.
The Government of Quebec
The GoQ would lack state capacity in its critical transition phase, though it
would be better off in this regards than most separatist movements as Quebec has
developed a shadow government of sorts over years of jurisdictional battles
with Canada. This weakness would be most painful in the security sector, as the
new state contends with unrest. The nascent GoQ also risks having a very poor
and dangerously reactionary decision-making cycle as it contends with numerous situations
spiralling out of control.
The Government of Canada
It is incredibly unlikely that the GoC would resort to arms to keep Quebec
within the Federation without additional cause. Canada lacks the capacity, the
will and the ideological mindset required for an operation of this sort.
The United States
The US, while having an intrinsic support for the GoC, would now witness
instability in its near-sphere of influence.
A separation of Quebec would cost it greatly. The US would do everything
it can to limit the scope of escalation. The US’s main interests would be
limiting economic disturbance and reorganizing all international treaties and
organizations it shares with Canada, such as NORAD.
Mobilized Quebec sovereignty activists
The separatist dream has been a long time coming. French Quebec has had a hard
time swallowing historical defeat at the hands of English Canadians. While poems
and speeches of liberation would accompany a jubilant crowd of self actualized nationalists,
this revolutionary energy would be difficult to control once the time for riots
and celebrations has passed. Overzealous nationalists may become a burden after
the fact as the GoQ seeks to restore order and calm Federation loyalists. In
addition, Quebec does have a history, if relatively minor, with its personal
homebrew of nationalist terrorism (still alive and well, as seen here
and here).
A separation and ensuing conflict with loyalists may galvanize such groups.
Quebec Loyalists to the Federation
Largely in Montreal and towards Ontario, many communities identify themselves
as Canadians first. From one day to the next, these communities would be told
they are no longer Canadian, and that they have to accept the status quo ante
or emigrate. While many would choose
to leave, there is a distinct possibility that some would refuse and take
to resisting the fledgling state. Entire communities may declare themselves
Canadian and demand support from the GoC, causing a difficult political debate
there as well.
Quebec Amerindian Populations
“If the French can do it, why can’t we?” Amerindians in Canada have always
wanted more autonomy, and the breaking up of the Federation would offer them an
incredible opportunity for creating an independent nation. Some communities
already manage their own affairs and have small militias to protect territory.
They have the greatest potential for a “fait accomplit” throughout the chaos.
Ethnic Communities
While ethnic communities may sway to one side or other of the independence
question (the large Haitian population may side with its linguistic sister,
while others may feel the sting of Quebec’s nationalism a little too starkly),
one thing is certain: Communities will tend to look towards themselves for
support and trust in a state defined by homogenous French Quebecers.
The course
of relations between these various groups is what would guide any outcome and
potential for conflict. As previously stated the governments would attempt to
manage the transition in a slow and methodical manner. The two primary actors
in many different situations would be the GoC and the GoQ. It is to be noted
that while the military should be perceived as a key player and sore point for
the deciding of who-gets-what (notably the Royal Canadian Air Force), I believe
the cohesion and common experience between Quebec units of
the Canadian Forces and their Federation partners would preclude any escalation
of military tensions outside of minor and localized rivalries. Yet while
wishing for a peaceful transition, the Governments of Canada and Quebec would
find themselves at odds over many natural resources, economically joint
projects, shared land and marine borders, and accrued infrastructure and
assets. The logistical and legal quagmire would offer up many potential
flashpoints to be seized upon by non-state actors. It is worth stating that Quebec
nationalization of Canadian assets could be one of the few issues changing the
strategic calculus for the GoC in favour of a more adversarial relationship, yet
still short of open conflict.
The most
significant flashpoint comes from the loyalist side, as they are the ones who
have most to lose in the event of a separation. The danger here is escalation.
Loyalists may choose to partake in resistance actions, and confront the now
national SQ
police force. As tensions rise – and all
it takes is one misguided police action - additional militants may join
ranks and up the ante. Once this occurs, the now mobilized sovereignty
activists may become a problem in their own right, with the SQ trapped in the
middle of a Quebec-wide community clash (undoubtedly centered in Montreal). It
would not take many hate crimes, at first by madmen such as the one who struck
the Metropolis on election night, to begin drawing up territory as owned by various
groups and allowing distrust to spiral to new heights.
The SQ and
GoQ would also have to contend with the possibility of whole communities declaring
themselves independent or loyal to the GoC, if the GoQ fails to woo them as
part of the independence project. What does the SQ do if Oka escorts GoC
representatives to its doors? What does the GoC do if towns near the Ontario
border hold their own referendums with 97% Canadian intention? What precedents
are set by the GoQ that may galvanize sentiments even more? And how are these
events viewed from the Federation? What will public sentiment in Ontario look
like when a Quebec town revolt is shut down forcibly by the SQ? Would the US be
able to mediate the conflict, as the GoC is perceived as too involved to do so?
All things
considered, these potential flashpoints amount to a low probability of open
international conflict. But the spectre of civil war looms ever quietly in the hearts of
non-state actors. Should separation occur, these groups are the ones which will require the most convincing to stave off the worst.
